Good News for Boise St

Boise St gets some nice news this Sunday as they jump to #5 in the coaches poll. Not only that Oregon gets a big win over Cal and a #16 ranking. That's a big win that Boise needs if they are going to have even a shot at the national championship game. A #5 ranking is great but lets not be so naive as to think that all they need is 4 teams ahead of them losing. Boise still needs a crazy amount of stuff to happen before they'd be seriously considered.
With that, lets look at the teams that are no longer playing meaningful games.

Florida St lost a game at home to an unranked team and racked up their second loss of the season. They aren't ranked anymore and they don't have too much of a shot to get back to the top. I'm saying they're out.
Northwestern lost at home to an unranked team.
Mississippi St lost a second game, one to an unranked team, one at home. They're 1-2 in the SEC. If they win out I guess I could see it though. I'm leaving them in.
Clemson lost one at home, one on the road, and both to teams ranked #15. The difference between them and Miss St is Miss St plays 5 more ranked teams including Florida and Alabama. Clemson only has a neutered Miami at 17 and FSU left on their schedule. They wont come back.
Arkansas might have the same possibility as Miss St so they'll stay on the list, for now.
Louisville has their second loss to an unranked team, they're out.
Oregon St lost at home to an unranked team, out.
Penn St was ranked when they lost. I should remind, doesn't eliminate you. Thats why preseason ranking is awful. Penn St is alive but NC St isn't. Of course, like I said before, no one knows the real rules.
Washington had a big letdown game v Stanford. They have one loss at home and one loss to a ranked team. But Washington has something that no one else so far has, which is a truly amazing win. Miss St and Arkansas are staying on here because they may beat Florida. Washington already beat USC. One more and there's no question though.
Texas Tech has two road losses to ranked reams. They'll stay in for now despite losing the biggest game of the year to Texas.

So after that explanation, to be as conservative as possible I'll say
Oregon St
Louisville
Clemson
Northwestern
Florida St

are out. Now lets see which games don't matter as a result.
Oregon St @ Washington St
Louisville v Southern Miss
Louisville v Arkansas St
Louisville v Syracuse
Louisville v Rutgers
Clemson @ Maryland
Clemson v Wake Forest
Clemson v Coastal Carolina
Clemson v Florida St
Clemson @ North Carolina St
Clemson v Virginia
Northwestern @ Purdue
Northwestern v Miami OH
Northwestern @ Michigan St
Northwestern @ Illinois
Florida St v North Carolina St
Florida St @ Wake Forest
Florida St v Maryland

That's 18 more games that don't count. Wow Clemson is basically an afterthought now isn't it.

Sportscenter

Ok, I don't have cable so when I do get a chance to watch ESPN and it's college football related it's pretty bad. There was this argument today where the BCS backer was asking for an example of a team going undefeated and not getting a chance to play for a national title because they were ranked too low at the beginning of the year and the GUY ARGUING WITH HIM FORGOT TO MENTION UTAH!!

God, it makes me so mad, never mind Boise St. and Auburn who both missed the championship game despite an undefeated season. Utah was the ONLY undefeated team last year, beat multiple ranked teams and still didn't get the chance. Who are these ESPN strawmen anyway. Yikes.

Also the guy arguing for the BCS had an absence of evidence flaw in the first place. Just because it's never happened that something ridiculous has happened (which it has actually: 3 times in 10 years) doesn't mean it wont. There are dozens of ideas about how to make college football more fair but no one ever pays attention to them. What am I thinking watching SportsCenter. I'm going to give myself a heart attack.

Week 4 preview

Here's your weekly rundown of games that don't matter:
Sept 26: Buffalo @ Temple
San Diego St @ Air Force
Tennessee Tech @ Kansas St
UNLV @ Wyoming
Rutgers @ Maryland
UCF @ East Carolina
Akron @ Central Michigan
Western Kentucky @ Navy
Idaho @ Northern Illinois
McNeese St @ Tulane
Louisiana Monroe @ Florida Atlantic
Troy @ Arkansas St
Colorado St @ BYU
Army @ Iowa St
North Carolina Central @ Duke
Maine @ Syracuse
Sam Houston St @ Tulsa
Northwestern St @ Baylor
Middle Tennessee St @ North Texas
Toledo @ Florida International
Miami (OH) @ Kent St
Ohio @ Tennessee
Hofstra @ Western Michigan
Cal Poly @ San Jose St
Marshall @ Memphis
Vanderbilt @ Rice
Southern Utah @ Utah St
New Mexico St @ New Mexico

Thats 28 games out of 61 games that don't matter. That's a whopping 46%.

51 teams

We're down to just 51 teams playing for the national championship

Clemson

Boston College

Florida St

Miami (FL)

Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech

North Carolina

Kansas

Missouri

Nebraska

Texas

Texas A&M

Oklahoma

Oklahoma St

Texas Tech

Cincinnati

Pittsburgh

South Florida

Connecticut

West Virginia

Louisville

Indiana

Iowa

Michigan

Penn St

Wisconsin

Minnesota

Northwestern

Ohio St

Notre Dame

TCU

Stanford

Washington

California

Arizona St

Arizona

Oregon

Oregon St

USC

Georgia

Florida

Kentucky

South Carolina

Auburn

LSU

Mississippi St

Alabama

Mississippi

Arkansas

Boise St

Thats much fewer than half of the teams still in it.

Week 3 Wrapup

It was a tough week for the Mountain West.  BYU and Utah are both eliminated in the race for the national championship.  TCU and Boise are the only two non BCS teams playing meaningful games.  Oh yeah, and the new addition to the top 25, Houston, gets the fun distinction of having a great season but not playing games with national title implications.

So BYU and Utah are out, who joins them?

Purdue, with a loss to NIU at home

Maryland, with a loss to Middle Tennessee St at home

Baylor, with a loss at home to Connecticut

Vanderbilt with a home loss to Mississippi St

Kansas St with a loss to UCLA

Thats 7 more teams who for the rest of the year will be playing games that don't matter.

Here are the new games off the list

BYU v Colorado St

BYU v Utah St

BYU @ UNLV

BYU @ San Diego St

BYU @ Wyoming

BYU @ New Mexico

BYU v Air Force

BYU v Utah

Utah @ Colorado St

Utah @ UNLV

Utah v Air Force

Utah v Wyoming

Utah v New Mexico

Utah v San Diego St

Purdue v Illinois

Purdue v Michigan St

Maryland v Rutgers

Maryland @ Wake Forest

Maryland v Virginia

Maryland @ Duke

Maryland @ NC State

Baylor v Northwestern St

Baylor v Kent St

Baylor @ Iowa St

Kansas St v Tennessee Tech

Kansas St @ Iowa St

Kansas St v Colorado

Vanderbilt @ Rice

Vanderbilt @ Army

Vanderbilt v Georgia Tech

Vanderbilt @ Tennessee

Yikes, that's a lot of games (31)

Week 3 preview

Here's a quick look at which games from Week 3 are irrelevant to the NCAA's championship
Ball St @ Army
Cal Poly @ Ohio
Wyoming @ Colorado
Alcorn St @ Central Michigan
Virginia @ Southern Miss
UAB @ Troy
Nevada @ Colorado St
San Diego St @ Idaho
FIU @ Rutgers
SMU @ Washington St
Gardner Webb @ North Carolina St
Buffalo @ UCF
Elon @ Wake Forest
Central Arkansas @ Western Kentucky
Bowling Green @ Marshall
Iowa St @ Kent St
Nichols St @ Louisiana Tech
Miami (OH) @ Western Michigan
Air Force @ New Mexico
UTEP @ New Mexico St
Tennessee Martin @ Memphis
Hawaii @ UNLV

That's 22 of the 64 games for Week 3. That's the highest percentage of useless games so far by far (34%)

YTD: 62 out of 204 (30%)

Playoffs?

A common BCS conception that I try to discount is that the whole season is like a playoff. Well, possibly except that the rules aren't known, the rules aren't fair, and it doesn't end when a playoff should. Rules aren't known: LSU wins the title with two losses even though other teams had one loss? Polls determine the champion? Rules aren't fair: The teams outside the BCS leagues have almost no chance of winning and no chance of proving themselves because of how BCS teams schedule games. A team could go undefeated without playing an elite team and still make it as long as they are in a BCS league. They end at weird times: like when you still have more than one undefeated team, or after every undefeated already loses.

However there are some times we do elimination games. . . or at least we think so. Because the rules aren't known its impossible for anyone to say without a doubt that this is a must win game, or that the loser is definitely eliminated. Pundits learned that the hard way with LSU a few years ago. How can we have a playoff if no one knows where they are in the tournament? Oh BCS, you are so full of it.

Anyway, I can spot a few games in Week 3 (finally!) where one might reasonably say that the winner moves on and the loser is out of the running. At the very least I will.

Utah @ Oregon (I'll usually say that if a team loses two games to ranked teams I can't eliminate them, but because an Oregon loss here would be two losses against non-BCS teams, Oregon would be in some pretty bad shape if not disqualified all together.)

Connecticut @ Baylor (Baylor would be losing at home to an unranked team, Connecticut would have 2 losses, only one vs a ranked team, only one on the road.)

Mississippi St @ Vanderbilt (Both teams would have two losses with a loss. I could see a situation where a team went 6-2 in the SEC and then won the SEC championship to make it to the BCS championship game, but that team would have to be one with a strong overall profile which would likely require being pretty highly ranked most of the season. The loser of this game wont be ranked without a 5-0 run afterward. From there, I don't see them getting the votes for a top 2 finish.)

Kansas St @ UCLA (We said Kansas St couldn't be totally counted out last week. A loss here clinches it for sure.)

Keep an eye on BYU @ Florida St. If BYU loses they're done based on their status as a non-BCS, but FSU may survive (I guess) a loss from BYU. That would be two losses from two ranked teams. Only thing is Miami wasn't ranked at the time, and BYU is a non-BCS. Again, no one knows the rules so who can say for sure? Because I'm trying to show how many games really don't matter in NCAA football I'll keep a team in contention longer than they probably are.

Bad Day for the States

Michigan St, Iowa St both lose at home to unranked opponents. Not the way to leave week 2 still in contention for a national title. For that matter Tennessee can't escape the elimination either losing at home to unranked UCLA. Thats three more teams off the board and its only week 2. What kind of championship system kills off a team before their third game is even played? I'm keeping Kansas St alive because I want to be as absolutely conservative as I can about whom to eliminate. Kansas St lost to Louisiana Lafayette, and normally that would do it for me, but they did lose on the road so I don't want to get too hasty. One more loss and we wont have to think twice though. I'm also keeping Oklahoma St active despite suffering easily the most embarrassing loss of the week. Its unlikely they'll fall totally off the top 25 but they are not a team that could lose again.

Here are the games that no longer matter:
Michigan St @ Illinois
Michigan St v Western Michigan
Iowa St @ Kent St
Iowa St v Army
Iowa St v Colorado
Tennessee v Ohio
Tennessee v Memphis

7 more games are irrelevant, 3 more teams are irrelevant.

In D1AA news there were two fantastic games played with CAA teams, James Madison loses in overtime to Maryland and New Hampshire beats Ball St. The CAA is good, really good. At the end of the year I wouldn't be surprised to see a better record v D1A out of conference in the CAA than the Sun Belt, and the great thing is those teams will be battling all year for a shot at the national title. Delaware's 15-16 loss to Richmond wont disqualify them from the playoffs, its just one of many amazing games left to play.

Week 2 preview

Week 1 had 22 out of the 78 games being irrelevant. With 9 new more teams without a chance to make the title game we see the percentage go up. The games in Week 2 that don't matter:

Sept 11: Colorado @ Toledo
Sept 12: Duke @ Army
Morgan St. @ Akron
Howard @ Rutgers
Louisiana Tech @ Navy
SMU @ UAB
Weber St @ Colorado St
Ohio @ North Texas
Hawaii @ Washington St
Illinois St @ Illinois
New Hampshire @ Ball St.
Memphis @ Middle Tennessee St
Texas Southern @ Louisiana Monroe
Central Florida @ Southern Miss
Western Illinois @ Northern Illinois
Prairie View A&M @ New Mexico St
Tulsa @ New Mexico
Southern Utah @ San Diego St

18 out of 62 games are meaningless this week. 29% of the slate has no bearing on the national champion.

YTD: 40 out of 140

Week 1 Wrapup

The biggest argument FOR the BCS is that its like a season long playoff and every game matters. Well, one thing is true about that mindset. The BCS is ruthless with its eliminations. If you are an unranked team and you lose at home to an unranked team, you are out. Goodbye season in week one. This week alone we have 9 teams that bit the dust
Rutgers
Syracuse
North Carolina St
Virginia
Duke
Wake Forest
Illinois
Washington St
Colorado

Congratulations to the SEC by the way for going 12-0 and winning 6 of them on the road. As much as I dislike them, credit where credit is due.

Those 9 teams are no longer playing meaningful games; which means these 24 games are games that don't matter to determining a champion:
Colorado at Toledo
Colorado v Wyoming
Rutgers v Howard
Rutgers v Florida International
Rutgers v Texas Southern
Rutgers at Syracuse
Rutgers at Army
Syracuse v Maine
Syracuse v Akron
Illinois v Illinois St
Illinois v Fresno St
Washington St v Hawaii
Washington St v SMU
Wake Forest v Elon
Wake Forest v North Carolina St
Wake Forest at Navy
Wake Forest at Duke
Duke at Army
Duke v North Carolina Central
Duke at North Carolina St
Duke at Virginia
North Carolina St v Murray St
North Carolina St v Gardner Webb
Virginia at Southern Miss

That'2 24 new games that don't matter. Wow! How exciting is college football!

CAA

How good is the CAA compared to their peers?  The CAA is collectively 8-3 and the 3 losses are all to D1 teams.  The CAA right now is 3-3 vs D1, which is very good for a D1AA league.  In fact there were only 3 wins by D1AA teams over their higher league peers all CAA.

SEC backers beware the CAA might be the most dominant league in college football.

First Look at Week 1

I know I'm jumping the gun but it's late and I can't sleep.  The good news is that Utah and Boise St. both make it out alive to keep our silly hopes of a non-BCS team in the BCS title contention.  The better news is we already have an elimination.  If you're unranked and lose at home to an unranked team you're out.  They'll take someone 10-2 with two value losses instead of an 11-1 team with a crappy loss, especially when two games they play are D1AA.  NC St. isn't out of the running for a BCS spot period, but cross them off the list that really matters.  Cross off two more games as games that don't matter: NC St. v Gardner Webb and NC St. v Murray St.

69 teams still in contention.