Big Money Bowls

One very solid bit of news coming from Week 10 was Notre Dame's loss. That opens up the big money bowls for teams like Boise St and TCU quite nicely. Also good to know is that Houston is back in the top 12, taking a spot a different big money team might have gotten. So lets run down again what the likelihood of BCS contenders and at larges.

1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Alabama
-then it gets murky, even more so than last week-
4. Georgia Tech (needs the ACC championship or some luck as an at large)
5. TCU (needs to win out, but still has #14 Utah left on their schedule)
5. Cincinnati (same as GTech)
6. Pittsburgh (same as GTech)
7. Oregon (same as GTech)
8. Iowa (same as GTech)
9. Ohio St (a highly ranked team that wont get in without winning their division, if they don't win their division they'll have 3 losses)
10. USC (If they win out they will be a BCS at large. For sure)
11. Boise St (Looking more and more like a BCS at large, especially with Houston and Utah in the top 14.)
-The teams no one expects but control their own destiny-
12. Clemson (still controls its destiny in the ACC)
13. Arizona (still controls its destiny in the Pac10)
14. Nebraska (still controls its destiny in the Big12)
15. West Virginia (still controls its destiny in the Big East)
16. Kansas St (still controls its destiny in the Big12)
-needs someone ahead of them to lose to be considered an at large-
17. Miami (The most attractive at large outside of USC, too bad they aren't in the top 14 right now.)
18. Penn St (Could they jump the other Big 10 teams?)
19. Oklahoma St (Looking more and more likely)
20. Wisconsin (Needs a lot of losses by top Big 10 teams)
21. South Florida (Seems super unlikely. There hasn't been a Big East team taken seriously without winning the division since Miami left.)
22. LSU? (I'm not sure if they are still alive. I guess Alabama or Florida could still have 3 losses each. They wouldn't win the SEC but they'd beat someone out for the second SEC spot.)
23. Utah (Beat TCU, and BYU and they look like an attractive at large team even if Boise St is ahead of them)
24. Houston (currently higher ranked than the Pac10 leader, but the 3rd ranked nonAQ team)
25. Rutgers (still needs a freakin miracle)
26. BYU? (I didn't have them in last week, and they are quite low this week, but could a BYU team that wins the MWC be an at large? If there aren't enough 2 loss teams I suppose. Right?)
-big jump-
27-41 Teams that are still technically still searching for a division win

That includes a number of teams that have 4 division losses. Pretty unlikely.

Teams Left

Alabama, Texas, and Florida are only 3 games away undefeated seasons. Alabama and Florida have already locked up the SEC title game. Texas has locked up the Big12 South. There aren't many opportunities left for any of them to slip up. That's ok though, since there aren't many deserving teams left below them. Cincinnati is probably next, then TCU. Someone will jump Boise St if it comes to it, I'm positive, even if its a one or two loss Texas/SEC. With that in mind after next week we'll reassess once there are some 10 game winners; but right now, teams still active:
Florida
Texas
Alabama
TCU
Cincinnati
Boise St
Georgia Tech
Pittsburgh

That's your Coaches top 9 minus Ohio St. OSU can still beat Iowa to boost themselves and their computer numbers, but they wont be able to climb high enough in the polls with 2 losses, especially since their season ends early. Teams win after the Big10 ends. The Big10 gets screwed.
Just 8 teams playing meaningful games in November? Is Boise or TCU actually relevant? Yeah, every game matters my eye.

Week 10 Wrapup

A very strange week indeed for college football. Teams right below the top 3 lost some momentum with Oregon, Iowa, and LSU all losing. Is this good news for Boise St and TCU? Well, that depends on what you believe the situation actually is for them. Because TCU and Boise were ahead of these teams in the polls already it would have been good for them to stay winning and muddle up the computer numbers. That is if you believe that it would take a miracle to see either in the BCS championship (which I do). Particularly upsetting is Oregon's loss which hurts both Boise St and Utah, so subsequently TCU as well. However, if you believe that Boise St and TCU were all along legitimate contenders then this is probably good news, since now there are very very few contenders below them should Texas lose, or a miracle happen in the SEC. If Texas loses any time the rest of the way TCU looks like the next team in line, as miraculous as that would be. Now, I would have surely seen a one loss Oregon or a one loss LSU jump them but now it's hard to spot a one loss team with the resume to overcome an undefeated Boise St or TCU. Of course Alabama, Texas, and Florida all got one step closer to an undefeated season making it basically irrelevant what happens below them.

Anyway, here's a list of the teams that are no longer playing meaningful games after week 10:
LSU - LSU can't jump either Alabama or Florida, so despite their resume suggesting that they are still alive for the national championship they wont win the SEC or come in second. They're done.
Iowa - What to do with Iowa? The polls hate them, and winning against Ohio St won't give them the boost they really need. Ohio St is ahead of them in the polls despite having two losses. The Big 10 is having a pretty bad down year and Iowa losing means they're out for good.
Oregon - Two losses isn't going to get it done. Even if they still win the Pac10 they wont overcome the teams ahead of them. The eventual Big East champion and the eventual Big 10 champion will end ahead of them.
Penn St - Two losses, to two teams now ahead of them in the Big10.

Here are the games that no longer matter because of it:
Iowa @ Ohio St
Iowa v Minnesota
LSU v Louisiana Tech
LSU @ Mississippi
LSU v Arkansas
Oregon v Arizona St
Oregon @ Arizona
Oregon v Oregon St
Penn St v Indiana
Penn St @ Michigan St

Only 10 more games go down.

Week 10 Preview

It looks like I'm late again previewing the week. So late in fact that Iowa has already lost today, which should obviously have some ramifications. Anyway, here's a list of the games that didn't don't and won't matter in terms of national title:
Eastern Kentucky @ Kentucky
Maryland @ North Carolina St
Furman @ Auburn
Texas A&M @ Colorado
Florida Atlantic @ UAB
Baylor @ Missouri
BYU @ Wyoming
Navy @ Notre Dame
Rice @ SMU
Washington St @ Arizona
Washington @ UCLA
Oklahoma St @ Iowa St
Duke @ North Carolina
Army @ Air Force
Kent St @ Akron
Louisiana Lafayette @ Arkansas St
UTEP @ Tulane
Louisiana Monroe @ North Texas
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee St
Troy @ Western Kentucky
New Mexico @ Utah
Oregon St @ California
Memphis @ Tennessee
Northern Arizona @ Mississippi (what? really? weak Ole Miss, weak.)
Houston @ Tulsa
Florida St @ Clemson
USC @ Arizona St
Oklahoma @ Nebraska
Colorado St @ UNLV
Utah St @ Hawaii
Fresno St @ Idaho
Wisconsin @ Indiana
Western Michigan @ Michigan St
Purdue @ Michigan
Illinois @ Minnesota
Louisville @ West Virginia
Virginia @ Miami
South Carolina @ Arkansas
Kansas @ Kansas St
Tennessee Tech @ Georgia
Bowling Green @ Buffalo
Virginia Tech @ East Carolina
Miami OH @ Temple
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois
Nevada @ San Diego St

That's a mighty big 45 games out of 56 or 80%
YTD: 306 out of 594 (52%)

A 3 team SEC

A nightmare situation for the SEC may be for 3 teams to finish with one loss. A situation that is quite possible if LSU gets its way. If LSU can beat Alabama, and then beat Florida in the SEC title game we would have 3 once beaten SEC teams, which would make us wonder where to put the three of them. One of these 3 will miss a BCS bowl. I already said I think the odds of it being Florida are essentially 0. There's a lot of speculation that a once beaten LSU would play for the national title. They would have to jump undefeated Iowa and Cincinnati to do it. What would the BCS rankings look like though. It's hard to imagine how the voters and how the computers would respond. I've been saying all along that LSU is in a much better position than most other contenders, but I'm wondering how that would shake out. Here's my guess:
1. Texas
2. LSU
3. Iowa
4. Florida
5. Alabama
6. Cincinnati
7. TCU
8. Boise St
9. Oregon
10. Georgia Tech

Would LSU at #2 in the polls be enough to overcome an Iowa team that might be #3 in the polls but #1 in the computers. If Iowa finishes undefeated how will the polls treat them. I'll be rooting for LSU the rest of the way with the hope that there will be chaos at the end.

The Big Money Bowls

It's not just the national title that the little folks get left out of. It's the big money bowls too. This is becoming more and more of a likelihood this year as we start to take a guess at who might be chosen for those 4 BCS at large spots. Either the Mountain West or the WAC will have a team playing in a bowl game well below their respective talent level. That's because there's no real place for them to go if the miss the BCS. The top WAC bowl is the Humanitarian. Yeah, I know. For most of the season we've been wondering if this year two lower tier schools would make it in to the big money spots. Boise St and TCU certainly have good arguments, and will likely finish ahead of Georgia Tech and the rest of the ACC mess in the final rankings, but because the big money bowls don't accept small time schools, and don't get placed based on rank, one of the schools if undefeated will be pissed.
It wouldn't be a huge deal if Boise St could just slide into USC's spot in the Holiday bowl, or if TCU could grab a Cotton Bowl invite. They'd still get paid off for a great season, but the way this money oriented sport works prevents them from being justly rewarded for their excellent seasons. Right now TCU would be a must take since they are ahead of both the ACC and Pac10 champion. But there are too many teams left available that are way sexier to the masses than Boise St. However unjustly USC, Penn St, and Alabama would almost certainly grab the remaining big time bowl spots. Not fair? Not relevant. This is college football. Lets take a look at which teams are still alive for a BCS bowl and their odds of getting there, by rank.

1. Florida (Will make a BCS bowl game if they are in the top 12. Will be in the top 12 with 2 losses or fewer)
2. Texas (Will make a BCS bowl game with 2 losses or fewer, even if they lose the Big 12 title. That by the way would be a massive blow for teams like Boise St, Penn St, Ohio St, etc.)
-After the first two is where the guarantees end. There's a pretty wide gap the rest of the way.
3. Iowa (Will likely win the Big 10 with a win over Ohio St or an OSU loss)
4. Alabama (Will make a BCS bowl game if they are the #1 or #2 SEC team)
5. LSU (Will make a BCS bowl game if they are the #1 or #2 SEC team)
6. Oregon (Has a game and a half lead in the Pac10, and a win vs Arizona likely locks it up.)
-Here's another big jump-
7. TCU (Will only get in if it goes undefeated)
8. Cincinnati (Will only get in if it wins the Big East)
9. Pittsburgh (Just as good of a chance to win the Big East)
10. Georgia Tech (Needs to win the ACC title game)
11. USC (If USC wins out the BCS will not be able to resist them as an at large
12. Notre Dame (If they get to the top 12 they will be more attractive than USC)
-Another big jump to the teams that no one expects, but still controls their own destiny-
13. Ohio St (Controls its own destiny in the Big 10)
14. Arizona (Controls its own destiny in the Pac 10)
15. West Virginia (Controls its own destiny in the Big East)
16. Clemson (Controls its own destiny in the ACC)
17. Nebraska (Controls its own destiny in the Big 12)
18. Duke (Controls its own destiny in the ACC)
19. Kansas St (Controls its own destiny in the Big12)
-Then another drop for teams that need someone ahead of them to lose in order to be considered for an at large-
20. Boise St. (Needs TCU to lose)
21. Penn St. (Needs USC or Notre Dame to lose)
22. Miami FL (Needs two of the three to lose: USC, ND, Penn St)
23. Utah (Needs Boise St to lose and Georgia Tech to lose)
24. Oklahoma St. (Needs many teams ahead of them to lose)
25. California (Needs USC and many other teams ahead of them to lose)
26. Wisconsin (Needs Ohio St, Penn St and many other teams ahead of them to lose)
27. South Florida (Needs West Virginia, Pittsburgh, and many teams ahead of them to lose)
28. Houston (Needs Georgia Tech to lose the ACC title game, Boise St to lose, Utah to lose, and TCU to lose and a few teams ahead of them to lose.)
29. Rutgers (Needs a freakin miracle)
-Another very very big drop-
30-45 Teams from power conferences still technically alive for a conference championship.

As you can see Boise St. is right now 20. All they need is a TCU loss and they're in good shape, but if TCU finishes ahead of them in the BCS standing Boise will almost certainly be left out. Just about anyone is a better fit than Boise for the big time bowl games. If TCU wins out the best bet for a TCU + Boise St BCS day would be a top 12 that includes two of the following: 3 SEC teams, Houston, 3 Pac10 teams, 2 Big East teams. We'll see.

Destroying the BCS

Having multiple undefeated teams is nice for BCS insanity, but what really will finally break the bank is not too many at the top, it's too many at the bottom. If there aren't enough teams to fill the useless bowl games that no one but the teams in them care about the bowl system really goes down. We've been close a few times to not having enough qualifying teams, but this year it looks pretty good that they will fill up the requisite number. There are 68 bowl spots available which is hilariously more than half of the D1 teams. It would be an issue every year if the season was still 11 games, but luckily the season has been extended to 12 games so that some truly mediocre teams get to go to bowl games. Examples from last year include: 6-6 (4-4) Colorado St, 6-6 (4-4) Memphis, 6-6 (4-4) Southern Miss, 6-6 Notre Dame, 6-6 (4-2) Florida Atlantic, 7-5 (3-5) Wisconsin, 6-6 (5-3) Northern Illinois, 6-6 (4-4) NC State, 6-6 (4-4) Vanderbilt, 7-5 (3-5) Minnesota, 6-6 (2-6) Kentucky (I find this one particularly egregious since two were Sun Belt teams and one was Norfolk St.

This year so far 32 teams are eligible and only 9 are surely not. There are 81 more teams available for 36 more spots. It's pretty likely that it wont be a problem this year and those spots will be filled. But if you are a true BCS hater (like I am) you'll be rooting for those 81 other teams to finish 5-7.