Big Money Bowls

One very solid bit of news coming from Week 10 was Notre Dame's loss. That opens up the big money bowls for teams like Boise St and TCU quite nicely. Also good to know is that Houston is back in the top 12, taking a spot a different big money team might have gotten. So lets run down again what the likelihood of BCS contenders and at larges.

1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Alabama
-then it gets murky, even more so than last week-
4. Georgia Tech (needs the ACC championship or some luck as an at large)
5. TCU (needs to win out, but still has #14 Utah left on their schedule)
5. Cincinnati (same as GTech)
6. Pittsburgh (same as GTech)
7. Oregon (same as GTech)
8. Iowa (same as GTech)
9. Ohio St (a highly ranked team that wont get in without winning their division, if they don't win their division they'll have 3 losses)
10. USC (If they win out they will be a BCS at large. For sure)
11. Boise St (Looking more and more like a BCS at large, especially with Houston and Utah in the top 14.)
-The teams no one expects but control their own destiny-
12. Clemson (still controls its destiny in the ACC)
13. Arizona (still controls its destiny in the Pac10)
14. Nebraska (still controls its destiny in the Big12)
15. West Virginia (still controls its destiny in the Big East)
16. Kansas St (still controls its destiny in the Big12)
-needs someone ahead of them to lose to be considered an at large-
17. Miami (The most attractive at large outside of USC, too bad they aren't in the top 14 right now.)
18. Penn St (Could they jump the other Big 10 teams?)
19. Oklahoma St (Looking more and more likely)
20. Wisconsin (Needs a lot of losses by top Big 10 teams)
21. South Florida (Seems super unlikely. There hasn't been a Big East team taken seriously without winning the division since Miami left.)
22. LSU? (I'm not sure if they are still alive. I guess Alabama or Florida could still have 3 losses each. They wouldn't win the SEC but they'd beat someone out for the second SEC spot.)
23. Utah (Beat TCU, and BYU and they look like an attractive at large team even if Boise St is ahead of them)
24. Houston (currently higher ranked than the Pac10 leader, but the 3rd ranked nonAQ team)
25. Rutgers (still needs a freakin miracle)
26. BYU? (I didn't have them in last week, and they are quite low this week, but could a BYU team that wins the MWC be an at large? If there aren't enough 2 loss teams I suppose. Right?)
-big jump-
27-41 Teams that are still technically still searching for a division win

That includes a number of teams that have 4 division losses. Pretty unlikely.

Teams Left

Alabama, Texas, and Florida are only 3 games away undefeated seasons. Alabama and Florida have already locked up the SEC title game. Texas has locked up the Big12 South. There aren't many opportunities left for any of them to slip up. That's ok though, since there aren't many deserving teams left below them. Cincinnati is probably next, then TCU. Someone will jump Boise St if it comes to it, I'm positive, even if its a one or two loss Texas/SEC. With that in mind after next week we'll reassess once there are some 10 game winners; but right now, teams still active:
Florida
Texas
Alabama
TCU
Cincinnati
Boise St
Georgia Tech
Pittsburgh

That's your Coaches top 9 minus Ohio St. OSU can still beat Iowa to boost themselves and their computer numbers, but they wont be able to climb high enough in the polls with 2 losses, especially since their season ends early. Teams win after the Big10 ends. The Big10 gets screwed.
Just 8 teams playing meaningful games in November? Is Boise or TCU actually relevant? Yeah, every game matters my eye.

Week 10 Wrapup

A very strange week indeed for college football. Teams right below the top 3 lost some momentum with Oregon, Iowa, and LSU all losing. Is this good news for Boise St and TCU? Well, that depends on what you believe the situation actually is for them. Because TCU and Boise were ahead of these teams in the polls already it would have been good for them to stay winning and muddle up the computer numbers. That is if you believe that it would take a miracle to see either in the BCS championship (which I do). Particularly upsetting is Oregon's loss which hurts both Boise St and Utah, so subsequently TCU as well. However, if you believe that Boise St and TCU were all along legitimate contenders then this is probably good news, since now there are very very few contenders below them should Texas lose, or a miracle happen in the SEC. If Texas loses any time the rest of the way TCU looks like the next team in line, as miraculous as that would be. Now, I would have surely seen a one loss Oregon or a one loss LSU jump them but now it's hard to spot a one loss team with the resume to overcome an undefeated Boise St or TCU. Of course Alabama, Texas, and Florida all got one step closer to an undefeated season making it basically irrelevant what happens below them.

Anyway, here's a list of the teams that are no longer playing meaningful games after week 10:
LSU - LSU can't jump either Alabama or Florida, so despite their resume suggesting that they are still alive for the national championship they wont win the SEC or come in second. They're done.
Iowa - What to do with Iowa? The polls hate them, and winning against Ohio St won't give them the boost they really need. Ohio St is ahead of them in the polls despite having two losses. The Big 10 is having a pretty bad down year and Iowa losing means they're out for good.
Oregon - Two losses isn't going to get it done. Even if they still win the Pac10 they wont overcome the teams ahead of them. The eventual Big East champion and the eventual Big 10 champion will end ahead of them.
Penn St - Two losses, to two teams now ahead of them in the Big10.

Here are the games that no longer matter because of it:
Iowa @ Ohio St
Iowa v Minnesota
LSU v Louisiana Tech
LSU @ Mississippi
LSU v Arkansas
Oregon v Arizona St
Oregon @ Arizona
Oregon v Oregon St
Penn St v Indiana
Penn St @ Michigan St

Only 10 more games go down.

Week 10 Preview

It looks like I'm late again previewing the week. So late in fact that Iowa has already lost today, which should obviously have some ramifications. Anyway, here's a list of the games that didn't don't and won't matter in terms of national title:
Eastern Kentucky @ Kentucky
Maryland @ North Carolina St
Furman @ Auburn
Texas A&M @ Colorado
Florida Atlantic @ UAB
Baylor @ Missouri
BYU @ Wyoming
Navy @ Notre Dame
Rice @ SMU
Washington St @ Arizona
Washington @ UCLA
Oklahoma St @ Iowa St
Duke @ North Carolina
Army @ Air Force
Kent St @ Akron
Louisiana Lafayette @ Arkansas St
UTEP @ Tulane
Louisiana Monroe @ North Texas
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee St
Troy @ Western Kentucky
New Mexico @ Utah
Oregon St @ California
Memphis @ Tennessee
Northern Arizona @ Mississippi (what? really? weak Ole Miss, weak.)
Houston @ Tulsa
Florida St @ Clemson
USC @ Arizona St
Oklahoma @ Nebraska
Colorado St @ UNLV
Utah St @ Hawaii
Fresno St @ Idaho
Wisconsin @ Indiana
Western Michigan @ Michigan St
Purdue @ Michigan
Illinois @ Minnesota
Louisville @ West Virginia
Virginia @ Miami
South Carolina @ Arkansas
Kansas @ Kansas St
Tennessee Tech @ Georgia
Bowling Green @ Buffalo
Virginia Tech @ East Carolina
Miami OH @ Temple
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois
Nevada @ San Diego St

That's a mighty big 45 games out of 56 or 80%
YTD: 306 out of 594 (52%)

A 3 team SEC

A nightmare situation for the SEC may be for 3 teams to finish with one loss. A situation that is quite possible if LSU gets its way. If LSU can beat Alabama, and then beat Florida in the SEC title game we would have 3 once beaten SEC teams, which would make us wonder where to put the three of them. One of these 3 will miss a BCS bowl. I already said I think the odds of it being Florida are essentially 0. There's a lot of speculation that a once beaten LSU would play for the national title. They would have to jump undefeated Iowa and Cincinnati to do it. What would the BCS rankings look like though. It's hard to imagine how the voters and how the computers would respond. I've been saying all along that LSU is in a much better position than most other contenders, but I'm wondering how that would shake out. Here's my guess:
1. Texas
2. LSU
3. Iowa
4. Florida
5. Alabama
6. Cincinnati
7. TCU
8. Boise St
9. Oregon
10. Georgia Tech

Would LSU at #2 in the polls be enough to overcome an Iowa team that might be #3 in the polls but #1 in the computers. If Iowa finishes undefeated how will the polls treat them. I'll be rooting for LSU the rest of the way with the hope that there will be chaos at the end.

The Big Money Bowls

It's not just the national title that the little folks get left out of. It's the big money bowls too. This is becoming more and more of a likelihood this year as we start to take a guess at who might be chosen for those 4 BCS at large spots. Either the Mountain West or the WAC will have a team playing in a bowl game well below their respective talent level. That's because there's no real place for them to go if the miss the BCS. The top WAC bowl is the Humanitarian. Yeah, I know. For most of the season we've been wondering if this year two lower tier schools would make it in to the big money spots. Boise St and TCU certainly have good arguments, and will likely finish ahead of Georgia Tech and the rest of the ACC mess in the final rankings, but because the big money bowls don't accept small time schools, and don't get placed based on rank, one of the schools if undefeated will be pissed.
It wouldn't be a huge deal if Boise St could just slide into USC's spot in the Holiday bowl, or if TCU could grab a Cotton Bowl invite. They'd still get paid off for a great season, but the way this money oriented sport works prevents them from being justly rewarded for their excellent seasons. Right now TCU would be a must take since they are ahead of both the ACC and Pac10 champion. But there are too many teams left available that are way sexier to the masses than Boise St. However unjustly USC, Penn St, and Alabama would almost certainly grab the remaining big time bowl spots. Not fair? Not relevant. This is college football. Lets take a look at which teams are still alive for a BCS bowl and their odds of getting there, by rank.

1. Florida (Will make a BCS bowl game if they are in the top 12. Will be in the top 12 with 2 losses or fewer)
2. Texas (Will make a BCS bowl game with 2 losses or fewer, even if they lose the Big 12 title. That by the way would be a massive blow for teams like Boise St, Penn St, Ohio St, etc.)
-After the first two is where the guarantees end. There's a pretty wide gap the rest of the way.
3. Iowa (Will likely win the Big 10 with a win over Ohio St or an OSU loss)
4. Alabama (Will make a BCS bowl game if they are the #1 or #2 SEC team)
5. LSU (Will make a BCS bowl game if they are the #1 or #2 SEC team)
6. Oregon (Has a game and a half lead in the Pac10, and a win vs Arizona likely locks it up.)
-Here's another big jump-
7. TCU (Will only get in if it goes undefeated)
8. Cincinnati (Will only get in if it wins the Big East)
9. Pittsburgh (Just as good of a chance to win the Big East)
10. Georgia Tech (Needs to win the ACC title game)
11. USC (If USC wins out the BCS will not be able to resist them as an at large
12. Notre Dame (If they get to the top 12 they will be more attractive than USC)
-Another big jump to the teams that no one expects, but still controls their own destiny-
13. Ohio St (Controls its own destiny in the Big 10)
14. Arizona (Controls its own destiny in the Pac 10)
15. West Virginia (Controls its own destiny in the Big East)
16. Clemson (Controls its own destiny in the ACC)
17. Nebraska (Controls its own destiny in the Big 12)
18. Duke (Controls its own destiny in the ACC)
19. Kansas St (Controls its own destiny in the Big12)
-Then another drop for teams that need someone ahead of them to lose in order to be considered for an at large-
20. Boise St. (Needs TCU to lose)
21. Penn St. (Needs USC or Notre Dame to lose)
22. Miami FL (Needs two of the three to lose: USC, ND, Penn St)
23. Utah (Needs Boise St to lose and Georgia Tech to lose)
24. Oklahoma St. (Needs many teams ahead of them to lose)
25. California (Needs USC and many other teams ahead of them to lose)
26. Wisconsin (Needs Ohio St, Penn St and many other teams ahead of them to lose)
27. South Florida (Needs West Virginia, Pittsburgh, and many teams ahead of them to lose)
28. Houston (Needs Georgia Tech to lose the ACC title game, Boise St to lose, Utah to lose, and TCU to lose and a few teams ahead of them to lose.)
29. Rutgers (Needs a freakin miracle)
-Another very very big drop-
30-45 Teams from power conferences still technically alive for a conference championship.

As you can see Boise St. is right now 20. All they need is a TCU loss and they're in good shape, but if TCU finishes ahead of them in the BCS standing Boise will almost certainly be left out. Just about anyone is a better fit than Boise for the big time bowl games. If TCU wins out the best bet for a TCU + Boise St BCS day would be a top 12 that includes two of the following: 3 SEC teams, Houston, 3 Pac10 teams, 2 Big East teams. We'll see.

Destroying the BCS

Having multiple undefeated teams is nice for BCS insanity, but what really will finally break the bank is not too many at the top, it's too many at the bottom. If there aren't enough teams to fill the useless bowl games that no one but the teams in them care about the bowl system really goes down. We've been close a few times to not having enough qualifying teams, but this year it looks pretty good that they will fill up the requisite number. There are 68 bowl spots available which is hilariously more than half of the D1 teams. It would be an issue every year if the season was still 11 games, but luckily the season has been extended to 12 games so that some truly mediocre teams get to go to bowl games. Examples from last year include: 6-6 (4-4) Colorado St, 6-6 (4-4) Memphis, 6-6 (4-4) Southern Miss, 6-6 Notre Dame, 6-6 (4-2) Florida Atlantic, 7-5 (3-5) Wisconsin, 6-6 (5-3) Northern Illinois, 6-6 (4-4) NC State, 6-6 (4-4) Vanderbilt, 7-5 (3-5) Minnesota, 6-6 (2-6) Kentucky (I find this one particularly egregious since two were Sun Belt teams and one was Norfolk St.

This year so far 32 teams are eligible and only 9 are surely not. There are 81 more teams available for 36 more spots. It's pretty likely that it wont be a problem this year and those spots will be filled. But if you are a true BCS hater (like I am) you'll be rooting for those 81 other teams to finish 5-7.

D1AA in the polls

I don't know if anyone saw the AP Top 25 this week but Richmond had one vote. What a great thing to see. Richmond is the first D1AA team to get a vote either major poll since 2007. It was two years ago that the rules were changed to allow D1AA teams be eligible after Appalacian St beat then #5 Michigan in the Big House. The week after the rule change App St got 19 votes, then 5 votes, then fell off. Northern Iowa then popped up in week 13 with one vote, and after winning the D1AA championship App St got 5 more at the end of the season. In 2008 we basically forgot about D1AA teams being in the AP poll and it seemed like the massive upset was a blip on the college football landscape. Seeing Richmond pop up in early November shows that the CAA is getting some very serious respect. Make no mistake, it's well earned. Richmond beat a 5-3 Duke team that's 3-1 in the ACC and is in the driver's seat for the ACC title. Villanova, Richmond, and William and Mary (All CAA teams) are in the top 60 of the Sagarin rankings, and the CAA is neck and neck with the Sun Belt for conference rankings. If a Sun Belt team had a road win over the ACC and was undefeated in conference they would be getting votes. In fact, Troy does have a vote in the Coaches Poll despite having a weaker resume than Richmond. Hopefully they will continue to rise as they prove more and more that they are top notch team.

Week 9 wrapup

Week 9 was a pretty relevant week considering the two big games in the Pac10 and the Big12. Because of that a few teams dropped from national relevance. Unfortunately both Texas and Florida won meaning that we are almost the whole way there to the national title being Texas/SEC. Florida's already won the SEC East thanks to South Carolina losing. Barring absolute mania in the SEC West the game between Alabama and LSU should decide that division. Texas doesn't really have any . . . ANY games left that could trip them up. If they can beat OK State by 27 on the road Texas A&M has a big job ahead of them. The Big12 title game is even less scary. The best Big12 North team in the Sagarin rankings is #43 Nebraska and that's at a neutral site. Who's still left out there even if a team in the top 3 loses. Well, lets just point out the teams that are no longer available:

-West Virginia is a 2 loss team in the Big East, nope.
-Oklahoma St isn't even the top 2 loss team in the country. Too many teams would have to lose too many games, and even then it seems unlikely. No way Oklahoma St. gets back to the top 5 this season.
-USC is out. They're actually ranked ahead of still alive Pittsburgh, but the difficulty will be advancing past the chain of losses. Oregon beat USC and Boise St beat Oregon. USC will continue to have great numbers all year but won't have the resume to make it back to #1 or #2, especially because the SEC has likely locked up a spot.
-South Carolina lost 3. They're out.

Getting down to the back end of the season. Few teams will likely drop out with a loss the rest of the year. More teams will be eliminated by winning opponents, which brings up a good question: If Florida and Texas end up in the title game did any of Iowa's games count? Ask Auburn how they feel about it.

Here are the games that no longer matter this season:
USC @ Arizona St
USC v Stanford
USC v UCLA
USC v Arizona
Oklahoma St @ Iowa St
Oklahoma St v Texas Tech
Oklahoma St v Colorado
Oklahoma St @ Oklahoma
South Carolina @ Arkansas
South Carolina v Clemson
West Virginia v Louisville
West Virginia @ Rutgers

Only 12 more games that don't matter.

Week 9 preview

Oh no, I forgot to do the preview for the week again, so while I'm watching the gamecast on my computer I figured I'd update the list. Here are a list of week 9 games that didn't don't and won't matter:
East Carolina @ Memphis
North Carolina @ Virginia Tech
Rutgers @ Connecticut
North Carolina St @ Florida St
New Mexico St @ Ohio St
Purdue @ Wisconsin
Louisiana Lafayette @ Florida International
Akron @ Northern Illinois
Mississippi @ Auburn
Nebraska @ Baylor
Southern Miss @ Houston
Missouri @ Colorado
Coastal Carolina @ Clemson
SMU @ Tulsa
Western Michigan @ Kent St
UAB @ UTEP
California @ Arizona St
Arkansas St @ Louisville
Central Michigan @ Boston College
Miami @ Wake Forest
Toledo @ Miami (OH)
Iowa St @ Texas A&M
Duke @ Virginia
Michigan @ Illinois
Temple @ Navy
Kansas @ Texas Tech
Air Force @ Colorado St
UCLA @ Oregon St
Middle Tennessee St @ Florida Atlantic
Hawaii @ Nevada
Western Kentucky @ North Texas
Louisiana Tech @ Idaho
Utah St @ Fresno St
Eastern Michigan @ Arkansas
Mississippi St @ Kentucky
Kansas St @ Oklahoma
Louisiana Monroe @ Troy
New Mexico @ San Diego St
Washington St @ Notre Dame
Michigan St @ Minnesota
Wyoming @ Utah
Ohio @ Ball St

That's a pretty big percentage of games: 42 out of 55 games are irrelevant (76%)
YTD: 261 out of 538 (49%) We break the 50% barrier next week.

PS. So far into the week we can already knock out West Virginia after their loss to South Florida, a two loss Big East team is not nationally relevant.

Teams still active

Here's an updated list on teams that are still playing meaningful games:
ACC: Georgia Tech
Big 12: Texas, Oklahoma St
Big East: Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Big 10: Iowa, Penn St
Pac10: USC, Oregon
SEC: Florida, Alabama, LSU, South Carolina
Other: Boise St, TCU

It's true, the Big East has more championship contenders than any other league besides the SEC. Good for them. Only 16 teams still active.

Week 8 wrapup

It was a pretty standard week with the top teams surviving. That doesn't mean the games weren't good or even close. Florida, Alabama, and Iowa were all down to the wire, but all that's going to matter at the end of the year is that they did win. Lets take a look at the teams that are no longer active and playing meaningful games:
-Kansas is out now, they aren't going to bounce back from two losses.
-Miami is a tough call because they already have 3 really nice wins. But they don't have any games left to make some noise. Even if they win the ACC Coastal the Atlantic has nothing to offer. They also aren't going to have a chance to play either of the teams ahead of them. Miami is probably out of the running now.
-Virginia Tech didn't even play but on that same note they're probably out now. Nebraska and Miami took big hits and now they are really lacking a signature win to go with those two losses. Oh yeah, and Iowa, Texas, Florida, Alabama, and Cincinnati are all one game closer to the undefeated season. VA Tech would need all to lose 2 games. Unlikely. Out.
-Wait, why did I have Missouri still active. Yikes.

Missouri
Virginia Tech
Miami
Kansas

That's probably it for this week. Most teams that were expected to win in fact did. That's bad news for Boise St and TCU, but we are down to only 16 teams playing meaningful football. Here's the games that are no longer important:
Missouri @ Colorado
Missouri v Baylor
Missouri @ Kansas St
Missouri v Iowa St
Missouri v Kansas
Kansas @ Texas Tech
Kansas @ Kansas St
Kansas v Nebraska
Virginia Tech v North Carolina
Virginia Tech v East Carolina
Virginia Tech @ Maryland
Virginia Tech v North Carolina St
Virginia Tech @ Virginia
Miami @ Wake Forest
Miami v Virginia
Miami @ North Carolina
Miami v Duke
Miami @ South Florida

Just 18 more games don't matter.

Idaho, a fan favorite managed to paste Nevada's defense for 45 points but still managed to lose by 25 points. It takes a little wind out of the sails of the showdown in Boise but what a turnaround.

Week 7 preview

We're at the point in the season where it would actually be a LOT easier to just put down the games that still did matter, but for shock value:
Tulsa @ UTEP
Florida St @ North Carolina
Rutgers @ Army
Indiana @ Northwestern
Central Michigan @ Bowling Green
Minnesota @ Ohio St
UAB @ Marshall
Illinois @ Purdue
Arkansas @ Mississippi
Iowa St @ Nebraska
Colorado @ Kansas St
Northern Illinois @ Miami OH
Ball St @ Eastern Michigan
Maryland @ Duke
Kent St @ Ohio
Buffalo @ Western Michigan
Louisiana Tech @ Utah St
Boston College @ Notre Dame
Akron @ Syracuse
Central Florida @ Rice
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee St
Wake Forest @ Navy
North Texas @ Troy
San Diego St @ Colorado St
Air Force @ Utah
Idaho @ Nevada
Washington St @ California
Florida Atlantic @ Louisiana Lafayette
UCLA @ Arizona
Louisiana Monroe @ Kentucky
Florida International @ Arkansas St
Tulane @ Southern Miss
Texas A&M @ Texas Tech
Temple @ Toledo
SMU @ Houston
UNLV @ New Mexico
Fresno St @ New Mexico St
Arizona St @ Stanford

Thats 38 games that don't matter out of 56. That's a full 68%.

Week 7 Wrapup

It's the first week of the BCS standings which means a lot of fans are going to be annoyed for a while. It's true that we aren't locked into an SEC/Texas matchup but we very well could be. Just like in 2005 when Texas and USC played wire to wire #1 and #2 football it could be the case that actually every other team doesn't matter.
Without further ado here are the list of teams that failed to keep a title dream alive and thus are no longer playing meaningful football:
-It's tough to say that South Florida is out after one loss but oh my is it close. Cincinnati is well ahead of USF in the pecking order and it will be hard to break that lock. Aside from that they aren't even in the BCS top 25 which means bouncing back is going to be quite hard. If a perfect storm happens including two Cincy losses, another GT loss, two Texas losses, two Iowa losses, and another USC and Oregon loss maybe an end of the year win over Miami would get them consideration... oh you know what, they're just out.
-Oklahoma lost three games. Obvious out.
-Wisconsin has good losses but no more opportunities for a big win. They'll have a good season but no where near a national title.
-Oh no Ohio St. It seems pretty unlikely this year that a 2 loss team from outside the SEC will make the national title game. On top of that their computer numbers stink and USC is for sure ahead of OSU in the pecking order. It's not going to happen this year.
-Has Arkansas really lasted this long. Well three losses is out.
-Notre Dame's not going to bounce back from two losses this season. They're out of the BCS top 25 and there really isn't much chance left for a big win.
-Nebraska has a very weak resume and not too many chances to bounce back. They're out of the BCS top 25 and will only have one more chance to get a big win. The BCS is confusing but Nebraska isn't a two loss championship team.
-Auburn lost at home to an unranked team.

-Kansas has three big games left, two of which have been pretty neutered. Nebraska and Oklahoma are tough games, and Texas will be a big one. Then they could turn around and play Texas again in the Big 12 championship.
-Virginia Tech is the top 2 loss team in the country, so the question to ask is whether a two loss team has a shot this year. I'd say yes still, so they can stay for now. But I reserve the right to bounce them even if they don't lose again.
-South Carolina is actually still in the running, but they need Florida to lose again, and then beat Florida to take the SEC East lead. It's a long long shot but wackier things have happened.
-Because it's a close call and because the game against Texas will matter whether I keep Missouri in or not, and because we're being very conservative here Mizzou gets one more week of relevancy. But probably not really.

8 teams lost games to eliminate them, but there are actually two teams with two losses that can be basically eliminated now that the first BCS rankings are up:
-Texas Tech is out of the BCS top 25 and they've missed their big shot vs Texas. Even if they win the Big 12 South the championship game wont be as big a game as they'd need. At this point they're out.
-Michigan still has three games vs ranked teams but how are they going to jump Iowa? And if they do jump Iowa how is the Big 10 going to put a two loss team in the championship. A Michigan title game is just so so unlikely.

So there you have it:
Michigan
Texas Tech
South Florida
Oklahoma
Wisconsin
Ohio St
Arkansas
Notre Dame
Nebraska
Auburn
are out. Here are the games that don't matter because of it:
Michigan @ Illinois
Michigan v Purdue
Michigan v Ohio St
Michigan @ Wisconsin
Wisconsin v Purdue
Wisconsin @ Indiana
Wisconsin @ Northwestern
Wisconsin @ Hawaii
Ohio St v Minnesota
Ohio St v New Mexico St
Texas Tech v Texas A&M
Texas Tech v Oklahoma
Texas Tech v Baylor
Oklahoma v Kansas St
Oklahoma @ Nebraska
Oklahoma v Texas A&M
Nebraska v Iowa St
Nebraska @ Baylor
Nebraska v Kansas St
Nebraska @ Colorado
South Florida @ Rutgers
South Florida v Louisville
South Florida @ Connecticut
Arkansas @ Mississippi
Arkansas v Eastern Michigan
Arkansas v Troy
Arkansas v Mississippi St
Auburn v Mississippi
Auburn v Furman
Auburn @ Georgia
Notre Dame v Boston College
Notre Dame v Washington St
Notre Dame v Navy
Notre Dame v Connecticut
Notre Dame @ Stanford
Another week where a whopping number of games get taken out of relevancy.
35 more dead games.

Week 7 preview

Now that we're down to only a quarter of the teams with any hope at all of playing for a national title it's highly unlikely that any week will have better than a 50% share of games that make a difference.

By the way I say any hope at all because many of the teams I have listed still don't really have a chance. These are the teams that can in actuality consider themselves national title contenders:
Florida
Alabama
LSU
South Carolina
Auburn
Texas
Oklahoma St
Kansas
Virginia Tech
Miami
Iowa
Cincinnati
USC
Maaaaayyyybeees:
Nebraska
Ohio St
South Florida
Oregon
Auburn is currently unranked, but if they end up running the table they will close with a win against possibly undefeated Alabama in the Iron Bowl, and possibly undefeated Florida in the SEC championship, and would have a win vs LSU. Because we're being super strict with our eliminations though we'll include all 30 teams still loosely active.

Games that don't matter:
Arkansas St @ Louisiana Monroe
Louisville @ Connecticut
Northwestern @ Michigan St
Wake Forest @ Clemson
Bowling Green @ Ball St
Georgia @ Vanderbilt
Mississippi St @ Middle Tennessee St
Army @ Temple
UAB @ Mississippi
Miami OH @ Ohio
Wyoming @ Air Force
Nevada @ Utah St
California @ UCLA
North Carolina St @ Boston College
Rice @ East Carolina
Akron @ Buffalo
Houston @ Tulane
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan
Virginia @ Maryland
Kent St @ Eastern Michigan
Hawaii @ Idaho
Stanford @ Arizona
BYU @ San Diego St
New Mexico St @ Louisiana Tech
Baylor @ Iowa St
Illinois @ Indiana
Louisiana Lafayette @ Western Kentucky
Florida Atlantic @ North Texas
Troy @ Florida International
Texas A&M @ Kansas St
Memphis @ Southern Miss
Northern Illinois @ Toledo
Navy @ SMU
Washington @ Arizona St
San Jose St @ Fresno St
Utah @ UNLV

That's 36 out of 55. Yikes! A whopping 65%
YTD: 181 out of 427 (42%)

Teams Left

To keep it neat and orderly I'll update who's left.
ACC (3): Virginia Tech
Miami
Georgia Tech
Big 12 (7): Texas
Oklahoma St
Kansas
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Missouri
Texas Tech
Big East (4): Cincinnati
South Florida
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Big Ten (5): Ohio St
Iowa
Penn St
Wisconsin
Michigan
Pac10 (2): USC
Oregon
SEC (6): Florida
Alabama
LSU
South Carolina
Auburn
Arkansas
Other (3): Notre Dame
Boise St
TCU

30 teams left. We're down to only one fourth of the teams playing meaningful games. Every game matters my eye.

Week 6 Wrapup

Before I get started I should point out that here is the time of the season where Boise St gets the eternal screw job. College football rankings are slot based. Nobody moves up unless the teams ahead of them lose. So far Virginia Tech and USC have jumped Boise without a loss. Because there are no rules the pollsters can choose who goes to the championship, that's it. That's the whole argument against the BCS for me. A group of 59 coaches pick a champion, records be damned.

Moving on, here's a list of the teams that are no longer in the running for the national championship:
Boston College lost 2 games on the road but only one against a ranked team and they only have one more vs a 25 ranked Notre Dame. They're not coming back.
Georgia has the dreaded third loss. Gone.
Texas A&M has lost 2 neither on the road and one is against an unranked team. They're out. Yes there are still games to be had vs Texas and Oklahoma but that would only eliminate UT or OU. A&M would have to have been ranked at some point during the year to bounce back from a two loss season.
UCLA lost a second game, one at home and one to an unranked team. A potential win over USC isn't going to be enough since Cal went down. UCLA is out.
Mississippi lost a second game and it seems like they're out of the running at this point. They don't have a game against Florida to bail them out.
Connecticut is a victim of its conference. A two loss team from the Big East isn't going to play for the national title despite their chances for some big wins down the road. A two loss team from any other conference will get the nod ahead of them.
Indiana gets the third loss and finally we can rule them out.
Stanford has two losses on the road vs unranked teams. They needed to be ranked to bounce back from two losses and wins over USC and Oregon aren't going to be enough.
Arizona is likely out the same way that Stanford is. Even though they have slightly better losses I think you would need to see a two loss Pac10 team ranked before losing twice.

Michigan can stay for now. They have two more big games before the end of the season to bounce back. And a two loss Big10 team with a ranking has a long shot's hope of making the title game.
That's:
Arizona
Stanford
Indiana
Connecticut
UCLA
Texas A&M
Georgia
Boston College
Mississippi
Ok so now we should assess which games are no longer important for the title game.
Arizona v Stanford
Arizona v UCLA
Arizona v Washington St
Arizona @ California
Arizona @ Arizona St
Stanford v Arizona St
Stanford v California
UCLA v California
UCLA @ Oregon St
UCLA v Washington
UCLA @ Washington St
UCLA v Arizona St
Indiana v Illinois
Indiana @ Northwestern
Indiana v Purdue
Connecticut v Louisville
Connecticut v Rutgers
Connecticut v Syracuse
Texas A&M @ Kansas St
Texas A&M v Iowa St
Texas A&M @ Colorado
Texas A&M v Baylor
Boston College v North Carolina St
Boston College v Central Michigan
Boston College @ Virginia
Boston College v North Carolina
Boston College @ Maryland
Georgia @ Vanderbilt
Georgia v Tennessee Tech
Georgia v Kentucky
Mississippi v UAB
Mississippi v Northern Arizona
Mississippi v Tennessee
Mississippi @ Mississippi St

34 games lost is a pretty big number.

Week 6 preview

Here's a look at the games in Week 6 that already don't make a difference.
Middle Tennessee St @ Troy
Louisiana Tech @ Nevada
Miami OH @ Northwestern
Purdue @ Minnesota
Vanderbilt @ Army
Michigan St @ Illinois
Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan
Houston @ Mississippi St
Ball St @ Temple
New Mexico @ Wyoming
Georgia Southern @ North Carolina
Texas Southern @ Rutgers
Navy @ Rice
Gardner Webb @ Buffalo
Bowling Green @ Kent St
Marshall @ Tulane
Duke @ North Carolina St
Arizona St @ Washington St
Utah @ Colorado St
Ohio @ Akron
Maryland @ Wake Forest
Florida International @ Western Kentucky
North Texas @ Louisiana Lafayette
Western Michigan @ Toledo
Southern Miss @ Louisville
Idaho @ San Diego St
Utah St @ New Mexico St
UTEP @ Memphis
East Carolina @ SMU
BYU @ UNLV
Fresno St @ Hawaii

Wow! That's 31 games that don't matter for the national championship. That's the same as the number of bowls that don't matter.
31 out of 55 games aren't relevant this week. It's the first week over 50% at 56%.
YTD: 145 out of 372 (39%)

Left Standing

Here's a look at the teams still playing games of relevance to the national title:
(4) ACC: Boston College
Virginia Tech
Miami FL
Georgia Tech
(8) Big 12: Kansas
Missouri
Nebraska
Texas
Oklahoma St
Texas A&M
Oklahoma
Texas Tech
(5) Big East: Cincinnati
South Florida
Pittsburgh
Connecticut
West Virginia
(6) Big 10: Wisconsin
Ohio St
Iowa
Michigan
Penn St
Indiana
(5) Pac10: Stanford
Oregon
Arizona
USC
UCLA
(8) SEC: Florida
Georgia
South Carolina
LSU
Alabama
Auburn
Mississippi
Arkansas
(3) Other: Notre Dame
TCU
Boise St

Just 39 teams are playing games that matter in Week 5. Even a ranked team is out.
Oh, and I forgot that I had eliminated Oregon St a bit ago. These games don't matter too.
Oregon St @ California
Oregon St v Washington

Week 5 Wrapup

Rankings are absurd. Houston goes from being the #12 team in the country to unranked. That's silly. These absurd swings show how little the ranking mean since one win or one loss can move you so far. That's why it's important to have more defined ways of determining rank, so that huge swings don't radically affect the outcome of the season.

Looking at the new week of action there are a few more teams that are no longer in competition for the national championship and thus playing meaningless games:
Minnesota
North Carolina
Kentucky
Washington lost 3 games.
Arizona St lost at home to an unranked team.
Mississippi St lost 3 games.
California lost one game at home and one to an unranked team, and has no more games vs ranked teams, and is not ranked this week. Out.
but......
Oklahoma's lost two games to two ranked teams and has #2 Texas still on the slate, I'll leave them in.
Indiana's lost two to ranked teams. It doesn't look possible, but I'm being conservative so they'll stay in.
Georgia still has 3 ranked teams on the slate including #1 Florida so it is certainly possible they come back from 2 losses, especially since both losses were to top 10 teams.

P.S. What happened to Houston's defense. That's pretty awful.

Ok, so we've got 7 more teams eliminated. Let's see how many more games don't matter.
California v Washington St
California @ Arizona St
California @ Washington
Arizona St @ Washington St
Arizona St v Washington
Washington v Washington St
Kentucky v Louisiana Monroe
Kentucky v Mississippi St
Kentucky v Eastern Kentucky
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt
Kentucky v Tennessee
Mississippi St v Houston
Mississippi St @ Middle Tennessee St
North Carolina v Georgia Southern
North Carolina v Florida St
North Carolina v Duke
North Carolina @ North Carolina St
Minnesota v Purdue
Minnesota v Michigan St
Minnesota v Illinois
Minnesota v South Dakota St

That's a whopping 22 more games that don't matter.

Division 1AA

It's been a while since I've posted about the better subdivision. The one with a 16 team playoff. Now that we are a few weeks in to the season let's take a look at the teams that are at this point no longer eligible for a playoff spot. SWAC teams and Ivy teams that aren't undefeated will be considered ineligible since a pretty good team from those conferences won't accept a bid.

CAA: Northeastern
Independent: Winston-Salem
Missouri Valley: Indiana St
Northeast: Robert Morris
Patriot: Georgetown
Ivy: Cornell
Dartmouth
Brown
Columbia
Harvard
Yale
Princeton
Penn
SWAC: Alabama A&M
Mississippi Valley St
Alcorn St
Alabama St
Jackson St
Prarie View A&M
Southern University
Grambling St
Arkansas Pine-Bluff
Texas Southern

23 teams have been eliminated. That's it. And outside of the SWAC and the Ivy where the teams abstain there's only 5 teams that can't win the championship.
Thats 23 out of 125 teams eliminated, only 18% of the teams. That's because 7-4 teams are still eligible for the playoffs. It's probably unlikely that an 0-4 or 1-4 will make a playoff run, but they certainly may. The same way I'm leaving Stanford in the running, I have to leave the lower teams in D1AA in. However, what we can do is a D1AA bracketology.
Big Sky: Montana
CAA: Richmond
MEAC: Florida A&M
MVC: South Dakota St
OVC: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Colgate
Southern: Furman
Southland: McNeese St
At Large: Northern Iowa
Villanova
William & Mary
James Madison
New Hampshire
Southern Illinois
Elon
Appalachian St

I skipped UMass at #8 because that would have been a 6th CAA team. I'm not sure if you can't have that many from one conference, but it seems unlikely.

By the way, there are 6 CAA teams in the top 8. That conference really ought to be D1A.

Week 5 Midwaythroughview

Whoops, I forgot to preview Week 5. No worries. Here's a look at the games that didn't, don't, and won't matter in Week 5.
Louisiana Tech v Hawaii
UAB v Southern Miss
BYU v Utah St
East Carolina v Marshall
Tulane v Army
Northwestern @ Purdue
Clemson @ Maryland
Toledo @ Ball St
Temple @ Eastern Michigan
Kansas St @ Iowa St
North Carolina St @ Wake Forest
Central Michigan @ Buffalo
Memphis @ UCF
Air Force @ Navy
Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois
Florida International @ Louisiana Monroe
Ohio @ Bowling Green
Wyoming @ Florida Atlantic
UNLV @ Nevada
Kent St @ Baylor
Tulsa @ Rice
New Mexico St @ San Diego St
Houston @ UTEP
Colorado St @ Idaho

24 games out of 52 total games for a percentage of 46%.
YTD: 114 out of 317 (36%)

Since I'm here we may as well take a look at some teams that have already eliminated themselves this week.
Minnesota with a home loss to an unranked team is out. Wisconsin wont be unranked next week though.
North Carolina is a long way from being ranked after losing at home to Virginia. They're out.
Kentucky gets a tough break losing the second home game in a row to a top 3 team. They could survive that, but who are they going to beat down the road? With only one game left vs a ranked team Kentucky wont climb into the top 2 of the BCS thats for sure. They're out as well.
I'm sure we'll have a few more by the end of the day.

Good News for Boise St

Boise St gets some nice news this Sunday as they jump to #5 in the coaches poll. Not only that Oregon gets a big win over Cal and a #16 ranking. That's a big win that Boise needs if they are going to have even a shot at the national championship game. A #5 ranking is great but lets not be so naive as to think that all they need is 4 teams ahead of them losing. Boise still needs a crazy amount of stuff to happen before they'd be seriously considered.
With that, lets look at the teams that are no longer playing meaningful games.

Florida St lost a game at home to an unranked team and racked up their second loss of the season. They aren't ranked anymore and they don't have too much of a shot to get back to the top. I'm saying they're out.
Northwestern lost at home to an unranked team.
Mississippi St lost a second game, one to an unranked team, one at home. They're 1-2 in the SEC. If they win out I guess I could see it though. I'm leaving them in.
Clemson lost one at home, one on the road, and both to teams ranked #15. The difference between them and Miss St is Miss St plays 5 more ranked teams including Florida and Alabama. Clemson only has a neutered Miami at 17 and FSU left on their schedule. They wont come back.
Arkansas might have the same possibility as Miss St so they'll stay on the list, for now.
Louisville has their second loss to an unranked team, they're out.
Oregon St lost at home to an unranked team, out.
Penn St was ranked when they lost. I should remind, doesn't eliminate you. Thats why preseason ranking is awful. Penn St is alive but NC St isn't. Of course, like I said before, no one knows the real rules.
Washington had a big letdown game v Stanford. They have one loss at home and one loss to a ranked team. But Washington has something that no one else so far has, which is a truly amazing win. Miss St and Arkansas are staying on here because they may beat Florida. Washington already beat USC. One more and there's no question though.
Texas Tech has two road losses to ranked reams. They'll stay in for now despite losing the biggest game of the year to Texas.

So after that explanation, to be as conservative as possible I'll say
Oregon St
Louisville
Clemson
Northwestern
Florida St

are out. Now lets see which games don't matter as a result.
Oregon St @ Washington St
Louisville v Southern Miss
Louisville v Arkansas St
Louisville v Syracuse
Louisville v Rutgers
Clemson @ Maryland
Clemson v Wake Forest
Clemson v Coastal Carolina
Clemson v Florida St
Clemson @ North Carolina St
Clemson v Virginia
Northwestern @ Purdue
Northwestern v Miami OH
Northwestern @ Michigan St
Northwestern @ Illinois
Florida St v North Carolina St
Florida St @ Wake Forest
Florida St v Maryland

That's 18 more games that don't count. Wow Clemson is basically an afterthought now isn't it.

Sportscenter

Ok, I don't have cable so when I do get a chance to watch ESPN and it's college football related it's pretty bad. There was this argument today where the BCS backer was asking for an example of a team going undefeated and not getting a chance to play for a national title because they were ranked too low at the beginning of the year and the GUY ARGUING WITH HIM FORGOT TO MENTION UTAH!!

God, it makes me so mad, never mind Boise St. and Auburn who both missed the championship game despite an undefeated season. Utah was the ONLY undefeated team last year, beat multiple ranked teams and still didn't get the chance. Who are these ESPN strawmen anyway. Yikes.

Also the guy arguing for the BCS had an absence of evidence flaw in the first place. Just because it's never happened that something ridiculous has happened (which it has actually: 3 times in 10 years) doesn't mean it wont. There are dozens of ideas about how to make college football more fair but no one ever pays attention to them. What am I thinking watching SportsCenter. I'm going to give myself a heart attack.

Week 4 preview

Here's your weekly rundown of games that don't matter:
Sept 26: Buffalo @ Temple
San Diego St @ Air Force
Tennessee Tech @ Kansas St
UNLV @ Wyoming
Rutgers @ Maryland
UCF @ East Carolina
Akron @ Central Michigan
Western Kentucky @ Navy
Idaho @ Northern Illinois
McNeese St @ Tulane
Louisiana Monroe @ Florida Atlantic
Troy @ Arkansas St
Colorado St @ BYU
Army @ Iowa St
North Carolina Central @ Duke
Maine @ Syracuse
Sam Houston St @ Tulsa
Northwestern St @ Baylor
Middle Tennessee St @ North Texas
Toledo @ Florida International
Miami (OH) @ Kent St
Ohio @ Tennessee
Hofstra @ Western Michigan
Cal Poly @ San Jose St
Marshall @ Memphis
Vanderbilt @ Rice
Southern Utah @ Utah St
New Mexico St @ New Mexico

Thats 28 games out of 61 games that don't matter. That's a whopping 46%.

51 teams

We're down to just 51 teams playing for the national championship

Clemson

Boston College

Florida St

Miami (FL)

Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech

North Carolina

Kansas

Missouri

Nebraska

Texas

Texas A&M

Oklahoma

Oklahoma St

Texas Tech

Cincinnati

Pittsburgh

South Florida

Connecticut

West Virginia

Louisville

Indiana

Iowa

Michigan

Penn St

Wisconsin

Minnesota

Northwestern

Ohio St

Notre Dame

TCU

Stanford

Washington

California

Arizona St

Arizona

Oregon

Oregon St

USC

Georgia

Florida

Kentucky

South Carolina

Auburn

LSU

Mississippi St

Alabama

Mississippi

Arkansas

Boise St

Thats much fewer than half of the teams still in it.

Week 3 Wrapup

It was a tough week for the Mountain West.  BYU and Utah are both eliminated in the race for the national championship.  TCU and Boise are the only two non BCS teams playing meaningful games.  Oh yeah, and the new addition to the top 25, Houston, gets the fun distinction of having a great season but not playing games with national title implications.

So BYU and Utah are out, who joins them?

Purdue, with a loss to NIU at home

Maryland, with a loss to Middle Tennessee St at home

Baylor, with a loss at home to Connecticut

Vanderbilt with a home loss to Mississippi St

Kansas St with a loss to UCLA

Thats 7 more teams who for the rest of the year will be playing games that don't matter.

Here are the new games off the list

BYU v Colorado St

BYU v Utah St

BYU @ UNLV

BYU @ San Diego St

BYU @ Wyoming

BYU @ New Mexico

BYU v Air Force

BYU v Utah

Utah @ Colorado St

Utah @ UNLV

Utah v Air Force

Utah v Wyoming

Utah v New Mexico

Utah v San Diego St

Purdue v Illinois

Purdue v Michigan St

Maryland v Rutgers

Maryland @ Wake Forest

Maryland v Virginia

Maryland @ Duke

Maryland @ NC State

Baylor v Northwestern St

Baylor v Kent St

Baylor @ Iowa St

Kansas St v Tennessee Tech

Kansas St @ Iowa St

Kansas St v Colorado

Vanderbilt @ Rice

Vanderbilt @ Army

Vanderbilt v Georgia Tech

Vanderbilt @ Tennessee

Yikes, that's a lot of games (31)

Week 3 preview

Here's a quick look at which games from Week 3 are irrelevant to the NCAA's championship
Ball St @ Army
Cal Poly @ Ohio
Wyoming @ Colorado
Alcorn St @ Central Michigan
Virginia @ Southern Miss
UAB @ Troy
Nevada @ Colorado St
San Diego St @ Idaho
FIU @ Rutgers
SMU @ Washington St
Gardner Webb @ North Carolina St
Buffalo @ UCF
Elon @ Wake Forest
Central Arkansas @ Western Kentucky
Bowling Green @ Marshall
Iowa St @ Kent St
Nichols St @ Louisiana Tech
Miami (OH) @ Western Michigan
Air Force @ New Mexico
UTEP @ New Mexico St
Tennessee Martin @ Memphis
Hawaii @ UNLV

That's 22 of the 64 games for Week 3. That's the highest percentage of useless games so far by far (34%)

YTD: 62 out of 204 (30%)

Playoffs?

A common BCS conception that I try to discount is that the whole season is like a playoff. Well, possibly except that the rules aren't known, the rules aren't fair, and it doesn't end when a playoff should. Rules aren't known: LSU wins the title with two losses even though other teams had one loss? Polls determine the champion? Rules aren't fair: The teams outside the BCS leagues have almost no chance of winning and no chance of proving themselves because of how BCS teams schedule games. A team could go undefeated without playing an elite team and still make it as long as they are in a BCS league. They end at weird times: like when you still have more than one undefeated team, or after every undefeated already loses.

However there are some times we do elimination games. . . or at least we think so. Because the rules aren't known its impossible for anyone to say without a doubt that this is a must win game, or that the loser is definitely eliminated. Pundits learned that the hard way with LSU a few years ago. How can we have a playoff if no one knows where they are in the tournament? Oh BCS, you are so full of it.

Anyway, I can spot a few games in Week 3 (finally!) where one might reasonably say that the winner moves on and the loser is out of the running. At the very least I will.

Utah @ Oregon (I'll usually say that if a team loses two games to ranked teams I can't eliminate them, but because an Oregon loss here would be two losses against non-BCS teams, Oregon would be in some pretty bad shape if not disqualified all together.)

Connecticut @ Baylor (Baylor would be losing at home to an unranked team, Connecticut would have 2 losses, only one vs a ranked team, only one on the road.)

Mississippi St @ Vanderbilt (Both teams would have two losses with a loss. I could see a situation where a team went 6-2 in the SEC and then won the SEC championship to make it to the BCS championship game, but that team would have to be one with a strong overall profile which would likely require being pretty highly ranked most of the season. The loser of this game wont be ranked without a 5-0 run afterward. From there, I don't see them getting the votes for a top 2 finish.)

Kansas St @ UCLA (We said Kansas St couldn't be totally counted out last week. A loss here clinches it for sure.)

Keep an eye on BYU @ Florida St. If BYU loses they're done based on their status as a non-BCS, but FSU may survive (I guess) a loss from BYU. That would be two losses from two ranked teams. Only thing is Miami wasn't ranked at the time, and BYU is a non-BCS. Again, no one knows the rules so who can say for sure? Because I'm trying to show how many games really don't matter in NCAA football I'll keep a team in contention longer than they probably are.

Bad Day for the States

Michigan St, Iowa St both lose at home to unranked opponents. Not the way to leave week 2 still in contention for a national title. For that matter Tennessee can't escape the elimination either losing at home to unranked UCLA. Thats three more teams off the board and its only week 2. What kind of championship system kills off a team before their third game is even played? I'm keeping Kansas St alive because I want to be as absolutely conservative as I can about whom to eliminate. Kansas St lost to Louisiana Lafayette, and normally that would do it for me, but they did lose on the road so I don't want to get too hasty. One more loss and we wont have to think twice though. I'm also keeping Oklahoma St active despite suffering easily the most embarrassing loss of the week. Its unlikely they'll fall totally off the top 25 but they are not a team that could lose again.

Here are the games that no longer matter:
Michigan St @ Illinois
Michigan St v Western Michigan
Iowa St @ Kent St
Iowa St v Army
Iowa St v Colorado
Tennessee v Ohio
Tennessee v Memphis

7 more games are irrelevant, 3 more teams are irrelevant.

In D1AA news there were two fantastic games played with CAA teams, James Madison loses in overtime to Maryland and New Hampshire beats Ball St. The CAA is good, really good. At the end of the year I wouldn't be surprised to see a better record v D1A out of conference in the CAA than the Sun Belt, and the great thing is those teams will be battling all year for a shot at the national title. Delaware's 15-16 loss to Richmond wont disqualify them from the playoffs, its just one of many amazing games left to play.

Week 2 preview

Week 1 had 22 out of the 78 games being irrelevant. With 9 new more teams without a chance to make the title game we see the percentage go up. The games in Week 2 that don't matter:

Sept 11: Colorado @ Toledo
Sept 12: Duke @ Army
Morgan St. @ Akron
Howard @ Rutgers
Louisiana Tech @ Navy
SMU @ UAB
Weber St @ Colorado St
Ohio @ North Texas
Hawaii @ Washington St
Illinois St @ Illinois
New Hampshire @ Ball St.
Memphis @ Middle Tennessee St
Texas Southern @ Louisiana Monroe
Central Florida @ Southern Miss
Western Illinois @ Northern Illinois
Prairie View A&M @ New Mexico St
Tulsa @ New Mexico
Southern Utah @ San Diego St

18 out of 62 games are meaningless this week. 29% of the slate has no bearing on the national champion.

YTD: 40 out of 140

Week 1 Wrapup

The biggest argument FOR the BCS is that its like a season long playoff and every game matters. Well, one thing is true about that mindset. The BCS is ruthless with its eliminations. If you are an unranked team and you lose at home to an unranked team, you are out. Goodbye season in week one. This week alone we have 9 teams that bit the dust
Rutgers
Syracuse
North Carolina St
Virginia
Duke
Wake Forest
Illinois
Washington St
Colorado

Congratulations to the SEC by the way for going 12-0 and winning 6 of them on the road. As much as I dislike them, credit where credit is due.

Those 9 teams are no longer playing meaningful games; which means these 24 games are games that don't matter to determining a champion:
Colorado at Toledo
Colorado v Wyoming
Rutgers v Howard
Rutgers v Florida International
Rutgers v Texas Southern
Rutgers at Syracuse
Rutgers at Army
Syracuse v Maine
Syracuse v Akron
Illinois v Illinois St
Illinois v Fresno St
Washington St v Hawaii
Washington St v SMU
Wake Forest v Elon
Wake Forest v North Carolina St
Wake Forest at Navy
Wake Forest at Duke
Duke at Army
Duke v North Carolina Central
Duke at North Carolina St
Duke at Virginia
North Carolina St v Murray St
North Carolina St v Gardner Webb
Virginia at Southern Miss

That'2 24 new games that don't matter. Wow! How exciting is college football!

CAA

How good is the CAA compared to their peers?  The CAA is collectively 8-3 and the 3 losses are all to D1 teams.  The CAA right now is 3-3 vs D1, which is very good for a D1AA league.  In fact there were only 3 wins by D1AA teams over their higher league peers all CAA.

SEC backers beware the CAA might be the most dominant league in college football.

First Look at Week 1

I know I'm jumping the gun but it's late and I can't sleep.  The good news is that Utah and Boise St. both make it out alive to keep our silly hopes of a non-BCS team in the BCS title contention.  The better news is we already have an elimination.  If you're unranked and lose at home to an unranked team you're out.  They'll take someone 10-2 with two value losses instead of an 11-1 team with a crappy loss, especially when two games they play are D1AA.  NC St. isn't out of the running for a BCS spot period, but cross them off the list that really matters.  Cross off two more games as games that don't matter: NC St. v Gardner Webb and NC St. v Murray St.

69 teams still in contention.

Division 1AA

Currently called something ridiculous by the NCAA, D1AA is the college football division that has gotten their act together and created a 16 team playoff to decide the national champion.  Last year's champion Richmond, currently ranked #2, will look to repeat over 3 time champion and giant killer Appalacian St., ranked #1.  Here are some things you should know:

1. There are 8 automatic bids and 8 invitation bids

2. Two conferences, while eligible, choose to abstain; the SWAC and the IVY

3. 7-4 for a tough conference and 8-3 for a mid conference are usually the bubble teams.

4. Starting next year the format will switch to 10 auto bids and 6 invitation.  (Wait you mean we don't need to adjust the size of the tournament just because we're adding an auto bid??  Call NCAA Basketball, we can get rid of that freakin play in game.)

5. There are 144 teams in 14 conferences with 2 independents.

6. The automatic bid conferences are: Big Sky, Colonial, MEAC, Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, and Southland.

7. Even if you abstain you can still be invited.  A SWAC team has gone every once in a while.

The great news about D1AA is that unlike the other monstrosity every team is right now in contention for a national championship.  Barring the 8 Ivies and the 10 SWACs this is a 126 team league and yes every game matters.  (Remember just because they abstain doesn't mean they wont get an invite if its deserved)

To get a look at the preseason rankings here's a link: http://fcsnow.com/poll.aspx

I don't think its a good one for in season but I'll find one that updates regularly.

How many games don't matter?

At the start of the season 70 teams are still in contention for a national title.  The rest, who cares.  At least thats what the BCS guys would have us believe.  In effect there are many teams out there playing games that don't matter.  Lets take a look at the games that have no relevance on the national title game.

Week 1 22 games

Week 2 13 games

Week 3 15 games

Week 4 18 games

Week 5 18 games

Week 6 19 games

Week 7 21 games

Week 8 20 games

Week 9 19 games

Week 10 16 games

Week 11 23 games

Week 12 20 games

Week 13 20 games

Week 14 3 games

Week 15 1 game

Thats 248 games that have no impact on the BCS championship game.  BEFORE THE SEASON STARTED!!!!!!  Yeah, every game matters.  Yikes.

First look at the new season

Ok everybody, the college football season is right around the corner; and according to the BCS supporters every game counts.  As we all know that is absolute nonsense.  At the beginning of the season unless you are a BCS conference team, or are already in the Top 25 you have no, 0, zilch chance of playing in the national championship game.  That means outside of the 66 teams in the BCS (don't forget Notre Dame) only Boise St., TCU, Utah, and BYU are playing at all meaningful games.  The next team is Nevada at 41 in the USA Today poll.  Lets just say a 12-0 season has Fiesta Bowl written all over it.  While thats great, it's not a national championship.

We're down to 70 teams in the running.  Hey, not too bad.  How many games are already irrelevant though:

Sept 3: Troy @ Bowling Green

Villanova @ Temple

Coastal Carolina @ Kent St.

North Texas @ Ball St.

Sept 4: Tulsa @ Tulane

Sept 5: Central Arkansas @ Hawaii

Appalachian St. @ East Carolina

Nicholls St. @ Air Force

Weber St. @ Wyoming

Rice @ UAB

Southern Illinois @ Marshall

Northwestern St. @ Houston

Samford @ UCF

Southern University @ Louisiana Lafayette

Army @ Eastern Michigan

Alcorn St @ Southern Miss

Mississippi Valley St @ Arkansas St.

Idaho @ New Mexico St.

Stephen F Austin @ SMU

Buffalo @ UTEP

UC Davis @ Fresno St.

Sacramento St @ UNLV

22 out of the 78 games in week one are irrelevant.  I'll revisit it week 2.

Why this site is here

Yes it's months away from football season but it's never too soon to start a look at the 2009 season.

This is a blog about the rest of college sports: that is anything outside of the BCS football conferences.  Most sports fans can agree that college football is essentially a joke.  The BCS system is a nonsense way to crown a national championship that is 2/3 decided by a small amount of coaches and former players many of whom don't even watch the games.  Most BCS supporters get upset that computer rankings make up the remaining 1/3 but if you ask me thats the strongest ranking system of the three.  A football playoff is THE ONLY way to decide a real national champion.  Schools outside the BCS have basically a 0% chance of winning the national championship.  In a year when the Utah went 13-0, defeated 3 ranked teams, and ran the table in the MWC's best year that I can remember (3 ranked teams, better than Big East and tied with the ACC.  2 top 10 teams, matching any conference), they still didn't get a sniff at the BCS title game despite being the only undefeated team in Division 1A college football.

Proponents of the BCS will tout that it is a great system because it makes for the best regular season in sports; or that every game matters.  What nonsense is this now.  Someone tell last year's Utah team, 2006's Boise St. team, or 2004's Auburn team.  Those are 3 teams that played a completely meaningless regular season.  The fact is a playoff would mean that more regular season games would be meaningful, not fewer.  At the very least this blog will take a look at the myth that the NCAA regular season is full of games that matter to the national championship.  And to start out we'll cut the teams outside the BCS that aren't on the preseason Top 25 since Utah had about as good a season as a team could but still missed the championship game.  They started on the outside looking in until a week one win @ Michigan.  Once the preseason coaches poll comes out we'll take a look at the 5 conferences not considered BCS worthy and see which teams' seasons are already over.

Another popular argument for the BCS is that a playoff just isn't possible.  Actually it is.  D1-AA already has a playoff. . . of 16 teams!  There are automatic bids as well as at large bids too, fancy that.  This will be the other side of Underdog Love, looking at the awesome concept of a college football league that ends in a playoff.  From there we'll compare which sub-division actually has more games that are nationally relevant as far as the championship goes.

That's it for the start of Underdog Love.  It's likely this site wont get cooking until the summer.  For right now you can join me in rooting for Xavier, Gonzaga, and Memphis in the NCAA basketball tournament.  You know, that one where an undefeated record gets you a pretty reasonable shot at a national championship.  I suggest you check it out.

For a great blog looking at the non-BCS schools of the basketball world check out www.midmajority.com