The Big Money Bowls

It's not just the national title that the little folks get left out of. It's the big money bowls too. This is becoming more and more of a likelihood this year as we start to take a guess at who might be chosen for those 4 BCS at large spots. Either the Mountain West or the WAC will have a team playing in a bowl game well below their respective talent level. That's because there's no real place for them to go if the miss the BCS. The top WAC bowl is the Humanitarian. Yeah, I know. For most of the season we've been wondering if this year two lower tier schools would make it in to the big money spots. Boise St and TCU certainly have good arguments, and will likely finish ahead of Georgia Tech and the rest of the ACC mess in the final rankings, but because the big money bowls don't accept small time schools, and don't get placed based on rank, one of the schools if undefeated will be pissed.
It wouldn't be a huge deal if Boise St could just slide into USC's spot in the Holiday bowl, or if TCU could grab a Cotton Bowl invite. They'd still get paid off for a great season, but the way this money oriented sport works prevents them from being justly rewarded for their excellent seasons. Right now TCU would be a must take since they are ahead of both the ACC and Pac10 champion. But there are too many teams left available that are way sexier to the masses than Boise St. However unjustly USC, Penn St, and Alabama would almost certainly grab the remaining big time bowl spots. Not fair? Not relevant. This is college football. Lets take a look at which teams are still alive for a BCS bowl and their odds of getting there, by rank.

1. Florida (Will make a BCS bowl game if they are in the top 12. Will be in the top 12 with 2 losses or fewer)
2. Texas (Will make a BCS bowl game with 2 losses or fewer, even if they lose the Big 12 title. That by the way would be a massive blow for teams like Boise St, Penn St, Ohio St, etc.)
-After the first two is where the guarantees end. There's a pretty wide gap the rest of the way.
3. Iowa (Will likely win the Big 10 with a win over Ohio St or an OSU loss)
4. Alabama (Will make a BCS bowl game if they are the #1 or #2 SEC team)
5. LSU (Will make a BCS bowl game if they are the #1 or #2 SEC team)
6. Oregon (Has a game and a half lead in the Pac10, and a win vs Arizona likely locks it up.)
-Here's another big jump-
7. TCU (Will only get in if it goes undefeated)
8. Cincinnati (Will only get in if it wins the Big East)
9. Pittsburgh (Just as good of a chance to win the Big East)
10. Georgia Tech (Needs to win the ACC title game)
11. USC (If USC wins out the BCS will not be able to resist them as an at large
12. Notre Dame (If they get to the top 12 they will be more attractive than USC)
-Another big jump to the teams that no one expects, but still controls their own destiny-
13. Ohio St (Controls its own destiny in the Big 10)
14. Arizona (Controls its own destiny in the Pac 10)
15. West Virginia (Controls its own destiny in the Big East)
16. Clemson (Controls its own destiny in the ACC)
17. Nebraska (Controls its own destiny in the Big 12)
18. Duke (Controls its own destiny in the ACC)
19. Kansas St (Controls its own destiny in the Big12)
-Then another drop for teams that need someone ahead of them to lose in order to be considered for an at large-
20. Boise St. (Needs TCU to lose)
21. Penn St. (Needs USC or Notre Dame to lose)
22. Miami FL (Needs two of the three to lose: USC, ND, Penn St)
23. Utah (Needs Boise St to lose and Georgia Tech to lose)
24. Oklahoma St. (Needs many teams ahead of them to lose)
25. California (Needs USC and many other teams ahead of them to lose)
26. Wisconsin (Needs Ohio St, Penn St and many other teams ahead of them to lose)
27. South Florida (Needs West Virginia, Pittsburgh, and many teams ahead of them to lose)
28. Houston (Needs Georgia Tech to lose the ACC title game, Boise St to lose, Utah to lose, and TCU to lose and a few teams ahead of them to lose.)
29. Rutgers (Needs a freakin miracle)
-Another very very big drop-
30-45 Teams from power conferences still technically alive for a conference championship.

As you can see Boise St. is right now 20. All they need is a TCU loss and they're in good shape, but if TCU finishes ahead of them in the BCS standing Boise will almost certainly be left out. Just about anyone is a better fit than Boise for the big time bowl games. If TCU wins out the best bet for a TCU + Boise St BCS day would be a top 12 that includes two of the following: 3 SEC teams, Houston, 3 Pac10 teams, 2 Big East teams. We'll see.