Monday, October 12, 2009

Week 6 Wrapup

Before I get started I should point out that here is the time of the season where Boise St gets the eternal screw job. College football rankings are slot based. Nobody moves up unless the teams ahead of them lose. So far Virginia Tech and USC have jumped Boise without a loss. Because there are no rules the pollsters can choose who goes to the championship, that's it. That's the whole argument against the BCS for me. A group of 59 coaches pick a champion, records be damned.

Moving on, here's a list of the teams that are no longer in the running for the national championship:
Boston College lost 2 games on the road but only one against a ranked team and they only have one more vs a 25 ranked Notre Dame. They're not coming back.
Georgia has the dreaded third loss. Gone.
Texas A&M has lost 2 neither on the road and one is against an unranked team. They're out. Yes there are still games to be had vs Texas and Oklahoma but that would only eliminate UT or OU. A&M would have to have been ranked at some point during the year to bounce back from a two loss season.
UCLA lost a second game, one at home and one to an unranked team. A potential win over USC isn't going to be enough since Cal went down. UCLA is out.
Mississippi lost a second game and it seems like they're out of the running at this point. They don't have a game against Florida to bail them out.
Connecticut is a victim of its conference. A two loss team from the Big East isn't going to play for the national title despite their chances for some big wins down the road. A two loss team from any other conference will get the nod ahead of them.
Indiana gets the third loss and finally we can rule them out.
Stanford has two losses on the road vs unranked teams. They needed to be ranked to bounce back from two losses and wins over USC and Oregon aren't going to be enough.
Arizona is likely out the same way that Stanford is. Even though they have slightly better losses I think you would need to see a two loss Pac10 team ranked before losing twice.

Michigan can stay for now. They have two more big games before the end of the season to bounce back. And a two loss Big10 team with a ranking has a long shot's hope of making the title game.
That's:
Arizona
Stanford
Indiana
Connecticut
UCLA
Texas A&M
Georgia
Boston College
Mississippi
Ok so now we should assess which games are no longer important for the title game.
Arizona v Stanford
Arizona v UCLA
Arizona v Washington St
Arizona @ California
Arizona @ Arizona St
Stanford v Arizona St
Stanford v California
UCLA v California
UCLA @ Oregon St
UCLA v Washington
UCLA @ Washington St
UCLA v Arizona St
Indiana v Illinois
Indiana @ Northwestern
Indiana v Purdue
Connecticut v Louisville
Connecticut v Rutgers
Connecticut v Syracuse
Texas A&M @ Kansas St
Texas A&M v Iowa St
Texas A&M @ Colorado
Texas A&M v Baylor
Boston College v North Carolina St
Boston College v Central Michigan
Boston College @ Virginia
Boston College v North Carolina
Boston College @ Maryland
Georgia @ Vanderbilt
Georgia v Tennessee Tech
Georgia v Kentucky
Mississippi v UAB
Mississippi v Northern Arizona
Mississippi v Tennessee
Mississippi @ Mississippi St

34 games lost is a pretty big number.

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